The Reserve Bank's November 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy sets out its forecasts for inflation, jobs and wages to the end of 2028, and the cash rate path those forecasts assume. The forecasts were finalised on 28 October, before the Board's 3 November decision to lift the cash rate target to 4.85%. If you plan to buy a car or upgrade a business vehicle in the next year, the forecasts are useful for one thing: setting a realistic budget. They are not a reason to rush a purchase or to wait for cheaper money.
This article is for salaried buyers with a clean credit history and established business owners who are comparing complete finance offers. It summarises the RBA's forecast table, works through what a rate move does to a typical car loan repayment, and ends with a checklist. The RBA pages were checked on 10 November 2026.
The RBA forecasts for November 2026 in one table
The RBA's forecast table figures for the next two years include:
- Headline inflation (CPI): 4.5% in the year to December 2026, 3.7% to June 2027 and 2.7% to December 2027.
- Trimmed mean (underlying) inflation: 3.6% to December 2026, 3.5% to June 2027 and 2.9% to December 2027.
- Unemployment rate: 4.7% in the December quarter 2026, rising to 4.9% by December 2027 and 5.1% by December 2028.
- Wage Price Index growth: 3.4% to December 2026 and to June 2027, easing to 2.9% by December 2028.
- Cash rate assumption: 4.7% for December 2026, 4.9% for June 2027 and 4.8% from December 2027.
In the RBA's words, underlying inflation is "now expected to remain above 3 per cent until late 2027" and headline inflation is expected to peak in the December 2026 quarter, mainly because of higher fuel prices.
What the cash rate assumption is, and is not
The cash rate line is not an RBA promise. The RBA says its forecasts are conditioned on a market path for the cash rate, derived from financial market pricing, that "increases by 35 basis points by mid-2027, before declining a little to stabilise at 4.8 per cent in 2028". That path was set before the 3 November rise, so part of the increase it assumed has already happened.
The cash rate target in effect since 4 November 2026 is 4.85%, and the next decision is due at 2.30pm on 8 December 2026. The Board said in its decision statement that it will be attentive to the data. Read together, the forecasts describe rates that stay around today's level for the next two years, with a small further rise priced in by markets. They do not describe a return to cheaper borrowing during that period.
What a rate move does to a car loan repayment
Most car loans are fixed rate, so a cash rate change does not alter a loan you already hold at a fixed rate. It changes the rates lenders offer to new borrowers, and how much they change is each lender's decision. Our guide to why car loan rates don't follow the cash rate explains the gap.
To show the scale, here is our own calculation for a $45,000 loan over five years with monthly repayments and no fees. The rates are round illustrations, not any lender's price:
- At 8.50% p.a.: about $923.24 a month, or $55,394.63 in total.
- At 8.75% p.a. (0.25 points higher): about $928.68 a month, $5.44 more, or $325.90 more over five years.
- At 9.00% p.a. (0.50 points higher): about $934.13 a month, $10.89 more, or $652.93 more over five years.
The method is the standard one set out in how car loan repayments are calculated. The point of the example is proportion. On a car loan of this size, a quarter point costs a few dollars a month. A $500 difference in establishment fees, a dealer add-on rolled into the loan or a weaker trade-in price can cost more than a half point rate move over the whole term.
Should you buy now or wait?
The forecasts do not answer that for you, but they do remove one common reason to wait. Waiting for rates to fall only pays off if they actually fall, and the market path assumed by the RBA shows the cash rate staying between 4.7% and 4.9% until the end of 2028. Delaying a purchase you need, in the hope of a cheaper loan, is a bet against that path.
What should drive the timing is your own situation: whether the vehicle you need is available at a price you can verify, whether your deposit and cash buffer are where you want them, and whether your income is secure. On that last point, the RBA forecasts unemployment rising from 4.7% to 5.1% over two years. That is a reason to keep a cash buffer after the purchase, rather than putting every dollar into the deposit.
For business owners, the same logic applies to an asset upgrade. A fixed rate chattel mortgage locks the rate for the term, so the quote you accept is the cost you budget for. Compare complete quotes for the same asset, term and balloon, and test the repayment against a quieter trading period, not your best month.
A budget checklist for a car purchase in the next 12 months
- Test the repayment at a higher rate. Price your preferred loan at the quoted rate and at least half a point higher. If the higher figure strains your budget, the loan amount or term needs another look.
- Compare the whole offer. Ask for the interest rate, comparison rate, every fee, any balloon and the total amount repayable in writing. Our guide to car loan fees lists what to look for.
- Check how long a quote or approval lasts. If you are shopping for weeks, ask the lender what happens to the rate if its pricing changes before settlement. Car loan pre-approval explained covers the conditions.
- Plan for higher running costs. The RBA expects fuel to keep headline inflation high into 2027. Budget fuel, insurance and registration at current prices, not last year's.
- Know your mortgage position. If you have a variable home loan, use the repayment after the November rise. Our article on the 13 November home loan rate rise explains when it shows on statements.
- Keep a buffer. With unemployment forecast to rise, a few months of repayments set aside is worth more than a slightly larger deposit.
The bottom line
The RBA's November 2026 forecasts point to inflation above 3% until late 2027, unemployment drifting up and a cash rate assumed to stay near today's 4.85% through 2028. For a car buyer, that means budgeting at today's rates or a little higher, comparing the complete cost of each offer, and not waiting on a rate cut the forecasts do not assume. When you are ready to compare, you can explore car loan options with us.
The forecasts and rates quoted are the RBA's published figures, checked on 10 November 2026. Our repayment figures are labelled calculations using illustrative rates. Forecasts can change and are not certainties. This article is general information only and is not financial advice.
